Shopify speculation rules posture and the Core Web Vitals

The strongest speculation rule the document declares: none, prefetch, prerender-until-script, prerender.

Field data PhoneDesktopAll Scope All sites October 2026 edition · All devices field outcomes · Shopify sites only
Shopify Scoped to 8,248 sites out of 203,892 analyzed (cms) Compare with all sites →

93.7% of Shopify sites have no speculation rules. Of the 6.3% that do, 95% use prefetch, and 89% of those sites pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 88% of all Shopify sites.

The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 8,062 with all devices field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
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Core Web Vitals pass rate

Sites with prefetch speculation rules pass all three Core Web Vitals most often: 89%, against 88% of all Shopify sites. The biggest gap is LCP, 97% against 96%.

SitesAll three good · at least one needs improvement · at least one poor
All Shopify sites8,06288%
Prefetch 5.9%47889%
No rules 93.7%7,55688%
Prerender 0.3%2868%
GoodNeeds improvementPoorSites: with Chrome field data
The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 8,062 with all devices field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
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Speculation rules usage

6.3% of Shopify sites use speculation rules, and 95% of those use prefetch.

All Shopify sites 8,246 sites
No rules 93.7%
Sites with speculation rules 517 sites
Prefetch 94.6%
Prefetch 94.6% Prerender 5.4%
The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 8,062 with all devices field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
3

Speculation rules per framework

On jQuery, 94% of sites use no speculation rules, and 83% of jQuery sites pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 88% of all sites. On Vue, 92% of sites use no, and 83% of Vue sites pass all three.

FrameworkSpeculation rules on its sitesPass all three
All Shopify sites 8,246 sitesNo rules 94%88%
Vue 933 sitesNo rules 92%83%
jQuery 3,153 sitesNo rules 94%83%
No rules Prefetch Prerender
The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 8,062 with all devices field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
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Speculation posture or the framework

Does the framework explain the speculation rules difference?

On jQuery, 87% of sites with prefetch speculation rules pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 83% of jQuery sites with no. Within jQuery, sites with prefetch and no pass all three about equally often. On Vue, 84% of sites with prefetch speculation rules pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 83% of Vue sites with no. Within Vue, sites with prefetch and no pass all three about equally often.

How prefetch, prerender-until-script, and prerender differ in Chrome

A prefetch rule only downloads the next page's HTML document ahead of the click, removing network TTFB on the subsequent navigation while leaving subresources and rendering until after the visitor navigates. A prerender-until-script rule downloads the HTML and subresources and builds the DOM and CSSOM in a hidden renderer, pausing before JavaScript executes. A full prerender rule executes scripts and paints the next page in the background so activation is near-instant.

The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 8,062 with all devices field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
Related signals Speculation eagerness → By Arjen Karel · 8,246 crawled Shopify sites (8,062 with all devices Chrome field data, October 2026) · How we measured