Shopify speculation rules posture and the Core Web Vitals

The strongest speculation rule the document declares: none, prefetch, prerender-until-script, prerender.

Field data PhoneDesktopAll Scope All sites October 2026 edition · Desktop field outcomes · Shopify sites only
Shopify Scoped to 8,248 sites out of 203,892 analyzed (cms) Compare with all sites →

93.7% of Shopify sites have no speculation rules. Of the 6.3% that do, 95% use prefetch, and 84% of those sites pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 83% of all Shopify sites.

The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 3,818 with desktop field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
1

Core Web Vitals pass rate

Sites with prefetch speculation rules pass all three Core Web Vitals most often: 84%, against 83% of all Shopify sites. The biggest gap is INP, 100% against 99%.

SitesAll three good · at least one needs improvement · at least one poor
All Shopify sites3,81883%
Prefetch 5.9%22684%
No rules 93.7%3,57583%
Prerender 0.3%1767%
GoodNeeds improvementPoorSites: with Chrome field data
The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 3,818 with desktop field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
2

Speculation rules usage

6.3% of Shopify sites use speculation rules, and 95% of those use prefetch.

All Shopify sites 8,246 sites
No rules 93.7%
Sites with speculation rules 517 sites
Prefetch 94.6%
Prefetch 94.6% Prerender 5.4%
The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 3,818 with desktop field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
3

Speculation rules per framework

On jQuery, 94% of sites use no speculation rules, and 76% of jQuery sites pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 83% of all sites. On Vue, 92% of sites use no, and 77% of Vue sites pass all three.

FrameworkSpeculation rules on its sitesPass all three
All Shopify sites 8,246 sitesNo rules 94%83%
Vue 933 sitesNo rules 92%77%
jQuery 3,153 sitesNo rules 94%76%
No rules Prefetch Prerender
The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 3,818 with desktop field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
4

Speculation posture or the framework

Does the framework explain the speculation rules difference?

On jQuery, 79% of sites with prefetch speculation rules pass all three Core Web Vitals, against 76% of jQuery sites with no. Within jQuery, sites with prefetch and no pass all three about equally often.

How prefetch, prerender-until-script, and prerender differ in Chrome

A prefetch rule only downloads the next page's HTML document ahead of the click, removing network TTFB on the subsequent navigation while leaving subresources and rendering until after the visitor navigates. A prerender-until-script rule downloads the HTML and subresources and builds the DOM and CSSOM in a hidden renderer, pausing before JavaScript executes. A full prerender rule executes scripts and paints the next page in the background so activation is near-instant.

The State of Web Vitals · October 2026 · Shopify: 8,246 crawled sites · 3,818 with desktop field dataBy Arjen Karel · corewebvitals.io/state-of-cwv
Related signals Speculation eagerness → By Arjen Karel · 8,246 crawled Shopify sites (3,818 with desktop Chrome field data, October 2026) · How we measured